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Short course on population projection incorporating the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS


This is a 5-day course run once a year, usually in June or July. The course offers an in-depth introduction to population projection and modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS. Emphasis will be placed on the development and exercise of practical skills. Specifically the course will offer the following:

  • Day 1: Introduction to population projection and estimation

  • Day 2: HIV/AIDS epidemiology and modelling, finding and understanding information about HIV/AIDS, and introduction to Spectrum

  • Day 3: Spectrum and EPP packages (the most widely used model, used by UNAIDS/WHO)

  • Day 4: ASSA2003 AIDS and demographic model: lite, full and the new models for the provinces

  • Day 5: Select or sub-population modelling

Applicants must be proficient in Excel and ideally have had some training in quantitative demographic (or actuarial) methods. Days 1 to 4 will be of particular value to demographers at statistical agencies in Southern Africa, those in provincial and local authorities tasked with projecting populations, post-graduate students in a field cognate to demography and academic staff. Days 3 to 5 are of relevance to actuaries who need to use projection models. Day 3 is of particular interests to those wishing to model the epidemic in countries for which the ASSA model has yet to be calibrated. Day 5 is run by the AIDS Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA), and is relevant to those who need to model sub-populations such as workforces, medical schemes and insured groups. Proficiency with the ASSA AIDS and Demographic model is a prerequisite for Day 5.

Enrolment is subject to a maximum of 40 participants. Depending on demand, individuals may register for single days or combinations of days.

Should you wish to be informed when the course is next run, please contact ZERINA MATTHEWS(zerina.matthews@uct.ac.za).

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