Actuarial Science Seminar: Tom Moultrie and Rob Dorrington (01/04/2009)

This weeks seminar will be presented by Professors Tom Moultrie and Rob Dorrington of the Centre for Actuarial Research, UCT.

Title of Presentation:
Making use of the consistency of patterns to estimate age-specific rates of inter-provincial migration in South Africa.

Abstract:
This paper uses a multiplicative component approach and the related log-linear model to present and compare interprovincial migration in South Africa by province of origin, destination, age, sex and race for three periods (1991-96, 1996-2001 and 2001-07). This, inter alia, shows a consistency of pattern of migration by age, sex, and race with the exception of children under age 5 (which are prone to undercounting and data scanning errors) which may extend back some 30 years. This consistency permits the estimation of the number of migrants born in the five years prior to the census from the numbers at older ages. These numbers of migrants are then converted to annual rates of migration and Rogers-Castro multi-exponential curves fitted to these patterns. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of these results for projecting future interprovincial migration rates and the generalisability of the findings to other environments.

Presenter:
Professors Tom Moultrie and Rob Dorrington of the Centre for Actuarial Research, UCT

Time and date:
01 April 2009 12.45 for 1 - 2pm

Venue:
LC2A The Nedbank Room

All welcome. For more information or details, please contact:

Zerina Matthews
Centre for Actuarial Research
Room 333.1 PD Hahn Building, Upper Campus
Tel: 021 650 5475
Fax: 021 650 5937

Posted 28/03/2009 by Zerina Matthews