Actuarial Science Seminar: Mark-Ross Dobbie (18/03/2009)

This weeks seminar will be presented by Mark-Ross Dobbie, Masters student, UCT.

Title of Presentation:
The estimation and interpretation of adult African mortality rates in SA using Census 2001 data.

Abstract:
This research develops estimates of mortality rates for adult Africans in South Africa for the twelve months preceding census night, 9/10 October 2001, using Census 2001 10% sample data. The methods used to estimate these rates follow the work done by Dorrington, Moultrie and Timæus (2004) working with the full dataset, which is not publicly available, and demonstrates that the 10% sample can be used to produce similar results to the full database.

The approach makes use of several indirect estimation techniques. Comparison of the number of deaths by sex and age from the vital registration system corrected for under-reporting with those reported by households in the census allows one to estimate adjustment factors that can be used to adjust deaths reported by households in various sub-groups (e.g. by province) to produce more reliable estimates than if the deaths reported by households had been used directly to produce mortality rates.

Thus we are able to produce sex- and age-specific mortality rates for different socio-economic and other groups. These rates are analysed both univariately and multivariately, using negative binomial regression, to identify the socio-economic and other factors that most explain the differences in mortality rates between groups.

Presenter:
Mark-Ross Dobbie, Masters student, UCT

Time and date:
18 March 2009 12.45 for 1 - 2pm

Venue:
LC2A The Nedbank Room

All welcome. For more information or details, please contact:

Zerina Matthews
Centre for Actuarial Research
Room 333.1 PD Hahn Building, Upper Campus
Tel: 021 650 5475
Fax: 021 650 5937

Posted 13/03/2009 by Zerina Matthews