The Southern African Journal of Demography
The Southern African Journal of Demography is currently located at the Centre
for Actuarial Research, and edited by Prof Rob Dorrington and A/Prof. Tom A Moultrie.
 Contents
Magnitudes, Personal Characteristics and Activities of Eastern Cape
Migrants: A Comparison with Other Migrants and with Non-migrants using Data
from the 1996 and 2001 Censuses
Nalen Naidoo, Murray Leibbrandt and Rob Dorrington
Abstract
This paper investigates the changing nature of migration of the African
population from the former Transkei, particularly the rural to urban
migration to the Cape Metropolitan Area over the period 1991 to 2001 using
data from the 1996 and 2001 censuses. The study compares the characteristics
of those who migrate from the Transkei to the CMA with those who migrate
within the Eastern Cape and those who do not migrate and investigates
whether the characteristics of these migrants have changed significantly
over this time. Nationally there has been an increase in migration of
females and the young and of migration to non-metropolitan areas.
Migration flows appear to have stabilised. However this is not uniformly the
case with migration from the Eastern Cape to the Western Cape remaining
strong. The labour market environment confronting migrants has worsened with
significant increases in percentages of migrants who are unemployed and some
de-skilling of the occupations in which migrants are finding employment. The
dire labour market situation in rural Eastern Cape maintains the flow of
migrants despite this hostile environment for migrants.
The Effect of HIV on the Estimation of Child Mortality Using the Children
Surviving/Children Ever Born Technique
Patrick Ward and Basia Zaba
Abstract
The children surviving/children ever born technique is an important method
of estimating child mortality levels in many developing countries. The HIV
epidemic threatens the validity of the technique in a number of ways,
principally through the correlation of mothers' mortality with that of their
children. This paper describes the use of stable population modelling to
simulate the application of the technique in populations with HIV and to
assess the extent of the resulting biases. It also shows that corrected
estimates can be derived given information on seroprevalence in the
population on the assumption of population and epidemic stability.
Socio-economic correlates of the incidence of extended household living
in South Africa
A.Y. Amoateng and I. Kalule-Sabiti
Abstract
Using the 2004 General Household Survey data, logistic regression analysis
was employed to examine the socio-economic correlates of the incidence of
extended households in South Africa. Main effects were found for marital
status, education, total monthly household expenditure, age, population
group, gender, and rural/urban residence, while interaction effects were
found between population group on the one hand, and education, age, gender,
and rural/urban residence on the other. Moreover, significant interaction
was found between household expenditure, marital status and age. Africans,
followed by coloureds, are the most likely to live in extended households,
while whites, followed by Asians, are the least likely to live in extended
households. While living arrangements partly reflect cultural preferences,
these preferences are subject to constraints.
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