Demography Seminar: Carel Pretorius (24/10/2008)
Modeling the joint epidemics of TB and HIV in a South African township
will be presented by Carel Pretorius (SACEMA, Stellenbosch) on Friday 24
October at 12.45 for 1pm - 2pm in LC2A
All welcome. Please distribute to any colleagues you feel may be
interested
An abstract of the presentation is given below:
We present a simple mathematical model with six compartments for the
interaction between HIV and TB epidemics. Using data from a township near
Cape Town, South Africa, where the prevalence of HIV is above 20% and where
the TB notification rate is close to 2,000 per 100,000 per year, we estimate
some of the model parameters and study how various control measures might
change the course of these epidemics. Condom promotion, increased TB
detection and TB preventive therapy have a clear positive effect, but there
are some difficulties in predicting the effect of antiretroviral therapy at
the population level.
For more information you can contact:
ZERINA MATTHEWS
CENTRE FOR ACTUARIAL RESEARCH
ROOM 333.1
PD HAHN BUILDING
UPPER CAMPUS
TEL: 021 650 5475
FAX: 021 650 5937
Posted 23/10/2008 by
Zerina Matthews
|
