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Faculty and Research :: Research

Research is an important and central aspect of the demography teaching programme's work. 

Research outputs

The research output of the core teaching staff is set out below:

Bradshaw D., L. Johnson, H. Schneider, D. Bourne and R.E. Dorrington. 2002. Orphans of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic: The time to act is now: MRC Policy Brief No. 2: Cape Town: Medical Research Council.

Bradshaw D., M. Schneider, R.E. Dorrington, D.E. Bourne and R. Laubscher. 2002. South African cause-of-death profile in transition 1996 and future trends, South African Medical Journal 92(8):618-623.

Bradshaw D., P. Groenewald, R. Laubscher, N. Nannan, B. Nojilana, R. Norman, D. Pieterse, M. Schneider, D. Bourne, I.M. Timus, R.E. Dorrington, L. Johnson. 2003. Initial burden of disease estimates for South Africa, 2000, South African Medical Journal 93:682-688.

Dorrington R., D. Bradshaw, D. Budlender and D. Bourne. 2002. The current state and future projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, South African Dental Journal 57:408-409.

Dorrington R., D.E. Bourne, D. Bradshaw, R. Laubscher and I.M. Timus. 2002. Some impacts of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality in South Africa, South African Journal of Clinical Nutrition 15 (Supplement 2):S3.

Dorrington R.E. 2001. Estimating the extent of the HIV/AIDS epidemic: Some questions and answers on the ASSA2000 model, Law Democracy and Development Journal 5(2):129-136.

Dorrington R.E. 2002. Did they jump or were they pushed? An investigation into the apparent undercount of whites in the 1996 Census, Southern African Journal of Demography 8(1):37-46.

Dorrington R.E. 2002. How many people are currently infected with HIV in South Africa?, South African Medical Journal 92(3):196-7.

Dorrington R.E. 2002. Population projections for the Western Cape to 2025. Report for the Provincial Authority of the Western Cape.

Dorrington R.E. and G. Slattery. 2002.  Impact of HIV/AIDS on Compensation for Road Accidents and the Road Accident Fund. Report commissioned by the Road Accident Fund Commission.

Dorrington R.E. and L.Johnson. 2002. Epidemiological and demographic, in Gow, J. and C. Desmond (eds). Impacts and interventions. Pietermaritzburg: University of Natal Press

Dorrington R.E. and S. Bennett. 2002. Modelling the pandemic in the provinces, Perspective.

Dorrington R.E. and T.A. Moultrie. 2002. Estimation of the extent of out-migration from the Western Cape 1999-2001. Report prepared for PAWC as part of a study into patterns of migration in the Western Cape.

Dorrington R.E., D. Bourne, D. Bradshaw, R. Laubscher and I.M. Timus. 2002. Some implications of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality in South Africa, AIDS Analysis Africa, 12(5):3-6.

Dorrington R.E., D. Bradshaw and D. Budlender. 2002. HIV/AIDS profile in the provinces of South Africa - Indicators 2002. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research, Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of South Africa.

Dorrington R.E., D. Budlender and T.A. Moultrie .2003. Census 2001: Are the numbers what we expect? Report to Statistics Council of South Africa

Dorrington, R.E. 2001. The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa by Province, Race and Class. Paper presented at the XXIV IUSSP General Conference. Salvador, Brazil, 18-24 August 2001.

Dorrington, R.E. 2003. Modelling the Epidemic: Why we should know a little more about models, in Desmond, C., L. Karam and M. Steinberg (eds). Still Everybodys Business: The enlightening truth about AIDS. Metropolitan Group: Bellville

Dorrington, R.E. and D. Schneider. 2002. Fitting the ASSA2000 urban-rural AIDS and Demographic model to 10 sub-Saharan countries. Paper presented at the 27th International Congress of Actuaries. Cancun, Mexico, March 17-22 2002.

Dorrington, R.E. and David Schneider. 2001. Fitting the ASSA AIDS and Demographic model to 10 sub-Saharan countries. Paper presented at the XXIV IUSSP General Conference. Salvador, Brazil, 18-24 August 2001.

Dorrington, R.E. and L. Johnson. 2001. The ingredients and impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and its provinces. Report prepared as part of the UNICEF case study of the long-medium term impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa.

Dorrington, R.E., D. Bourne, D. Bradshaw, R. Laubscher and I.M. Timus. 2001. The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Adult Mortality in South Africa. Cape Town: Medical Research Council.

Dorrington, R.E., Debbie Bradshaw, David Bourne, Ian Timus and Nadine Nannan. 2001. AIDS Mortality in South Africa. Paper presented at the AIDS in Context International Conference, Johannesburg, 4 7th April 2001.

Dorrington, R.E., S. Rosenberg, L. Johnson and D. Schneider. 2002. A multi-state select population AIDS model. Paper presented at the 27th International Congress of Actuaries. Cancun, Mexico, March 17-22 2002.

Dorrington, R.E., Tom A Moultrie, Ian M. Timus. 2004. Estimation of mortality from the 2001 South Africa Census data. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research for Statistics South Africa.

Grieser M., J. Gittlesohn, R. Marindo, and K. Hill. 2001. Reproductive decision making and the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zimbabwe, Journal of Southern African Studies 27(2)

Johnson, L. and R.E. Dorrington. 2001. The Impact of AIDS on Orphanhood in South Africa: A Quantitative Analysis. Monograph No.4. University of Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research.

Marindo R., S. Pearson and J. Casterline.2003. Condom use and abstinence among young unmarried Zimbabweans. Population Council Policy research Division Working Paper 150. New York: Population Council

Marindo, R.C. 2000. Death colonized. Historical adult mortality in Rhodesia (Zimbabwe), Zambezia, XXVI(ii):89-95.

Moultrie, Tom A. 2000. "Declining fertility and increasing birth intervals in South Africa: 1970-1996," Paper presented at British Society for Population Studies annual conference. Utrecht, Netherlands, 31 August - 1 September 2000.

Moultrie, Tom A. 2001. "Racism and reproduction: The institutional effects of apartheid on the South African fertility decline," Paper presented at International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, XXIV General Population Conference. Salvador de Bahia, Brazil, 18 - 24 August 2001.

Moultrie, Tom A. 2002. A future with fewer children: Past and projected trends in the South African fertility transition, Paper presented at Second Annual Conference on Labour Markets and Poverty in South Africa. Johannesburg, South Africa, 22-24 October 2002.

Moultrie, Tom A. and Ian M. Timus. 2001. "Fertility and living arrangements in South Africa", Journal of Southern African Studies 27(2):207-223.

Moultrie, Tom A. and Ian M. Timus. 2002. Trends in South African fertility between 1970 and 1998: An analysis of the 1996 Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey. Cape Town: Medical Research Council. http://www.mrc.ac.za/bod/trends.pdf.

Moultrie, Tom A. and Ian M. Timus. 2003. The South African fertility decline: Evidence from two censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey, Population Studies 57(3):265-283.

Moultrie, Tom A. and Rob Dorrington. 2004. Estimation of fertility from the 2001 South Africa Census data. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research for Statistics South Africa.

Robinson, J.N. and R. Marindo. 1999. Current estimates of and future projections for adult deaths attributed to HIV infections in Zimbabwe, Journal of Immunodeficiency and Retrovirology. 20:187-194.

Timus, Ian M and Tom A Moultrie. 2003. Why do women use contraception?, Paper presented at Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America. Minneapolis, Minnesota, 1-3 May, 2003.

Collaboration with other institutions

Through our research, we engage collaboratively several other organisations working in the fields of demography, epidemiology and public health. In recent years, these collaborations have included

  • The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • The South African Medical Research Council

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